Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | JMU -900 VAL +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -28.2 (-30.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -17.6 (-19.6) | 144.8 (+15.2) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -16.2 (-18.2) | 142.5 (+17.5) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -15.7 (-17.7) | 142.4 (+17.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -18.7 (-20.7) | 143.2 (+16.8) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#3) | -8.8 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#33) | -1.43 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#43) | -2.56 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#82) | 0.377 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 43.1% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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