Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | PUR +125 DUKE -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +19 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -3.1 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.4 (+17.6) | 128.6 (+2.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -2.2 (+16.8) | 129.1 (+1.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -2.3 (+16.7) | 130.1 (+0.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -2.0 (+17.0) | 129.8 (+1.2) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 16-0 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#14) | 12.7 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#4) | 2.03 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.94 (#2) | 3.28 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.741 (#1) | 0.642 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 43.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 16.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 44.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 78.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.5% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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