Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | BALL +110 SJSU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -6.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -4.4 (-6.4) | 135.0 (-3.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -2.9 (-4.9) | 132.2 (-0.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -2.6 (-4.6) | 139.4 (-7.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -3.0 (-5.0) | 140.5 (-8.5) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#148) | -4.4 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#132) | 0.22 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#114) | 0.04 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#190) | 0.491 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 12.1% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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