Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -225 STAN +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +8 | 104 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -7.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -5.3 (+2.7) | 135.8 (-31.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -5.7 (+2.3) | 132.2 (-28.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -4.6 (+3.4) | 136.6 (-32.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -4.7 (+3.3) | 136.1 (-32.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#45) | 1.8 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#81) | -0.70 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#61) | -0.48 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#31) | 0.501 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 81.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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