Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -8000 CHST +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -26.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -21.0 (-7.0) | 154.6 (-4.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -22.4 (-8.4) | 154.4 (-4.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -24.9 (-10.9) | 153.6 (-3.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -26.0 (-12.0) | 153.1 (-3.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 0-0 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-0 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-20 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#22) | -6.8 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#67) | -0.70 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#56) | -1.32 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#81) | 0.454 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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