Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -120 JXST +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +4 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | JXST -6.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JXST -2.7 (+6.7) | 141.8 (+26.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JXST -3.7 (+7.7) | 140.0 (+28.0) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JXST -3.2 (+7.2) | 140.8 (+27.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JXST -2.9 (+6.9) | 142.8 (+25.2) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#328) | -3.7 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#275) | -1.43 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#280) | -2.68 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#178) | 0.452 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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