Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | FIU -200 EWU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +11 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | FIU -5.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FIU -4.1 (+6.9) | 145.8 (+23.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FIU -1.3 (+9.7) | 145.7 (+23.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -4.8 (+6.2) | 145.1 (+23.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -4.9 (+6.1) | 146.8 (+22.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-7 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-10 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#258) | -3.7 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#262) | -0.65 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#249) | -1.05 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#302) | 0.457 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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