Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | OHIO -1600 ALST +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +14 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -21.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -15.0 (-1.0) | 145.2 (-15.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -16.8 (-2.8) | 144.7 (-14.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -15.2 (-1.2) | 146.7 (-16.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -15.5 (-1.5) | 145.2 (-15.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-1 | 5-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#154) | -13.8 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#196) | -1.59 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#185) | -2.46 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#276) | 0.427 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 33.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 15.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 38.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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