Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | GAST +120 BEL -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -0.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -0.5 (-1.5) | 141.2 (-7.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.9 (-3.9) | 140.5 (-6.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -1.0 (-3.0) | 139.6 (-5.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -2.2 (-4.2) | 139.2 (-5.2) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 7, 2023 | BEL 89 – 87 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-9 | 12-2 |
| Away | 0-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#259) | 1.6 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#255) | 0.21 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#206) | 0.13 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#231) | 0.458 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 23.9% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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