Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -225 CAN +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +20 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -5.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -4.7 (+15.3) | 150.5 (+1.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -3.6 (+16.4) | 150.7 (+1.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -4.2 (+15.8) | 150.7 (+1.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -2.9 (+17.1) | 151.0 (+1.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | BUF 71 – 53 CAN |
| Dec 18, 2021 | CAN 65 – 64 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#251) | -2.5 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#217) | -1.20 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#221) | -1.20 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#151) | 0.461 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.2% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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