Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +1 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -15.9 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -12.5 (+13.5) | 151.5 (-22.5) | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -11.3 (+12.3) | 149.4 (-20.4) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -12.4 (+13.4) | 152.0 (-23.0) | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -12.1 (+13.1) | 150.5 (-21.5) | 18% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | BUF 71 – 53 CAN |
| Nov 27, 2022 | BUF 86 – 66 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-3 |
| Away | 1-15 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#311) | 6.8 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#331) | 1.07 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.63 (#335) | 2.01 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#308) | 0.568 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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