Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +18 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -10.3 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -7.4 (-10.6) | 134.1 (-10.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -5.1 (-12.9) | 138.8 (-14.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -6.8 (-11.2) | 138.0 (-14.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -8.8 (-9.2) | 127.9 (-3.9) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2022 | BUF 86 – 66 CAN |
| Dec 18, 2021 | CAN 65 – 64 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.2 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -14.4 (#348) | 1.5 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#174) | 2.50 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#209) | 3.38 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#161) | 0.605 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 47.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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