Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | NKU -700 TNTC +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -5.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -5.0 (+3.0) | 137.0 (+25.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -5.6 (+2.4) | 134.8 (+27.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -4.1 (+3.9) | 137.6 (+24.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -4.9 (+3.1) | 137.8 (+24.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2020 | NKU 74 – 65 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#310) | -7.4 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#304) | -1.74 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#277) | -2.56 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#306) | 0.464 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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