Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | ORE +110 VILL -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -2.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -2.1 (+4.9) | 136.3 (+4.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -2.3 (+4.7) | 134.9 (+6.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -1.9 (+5.1) | 138.7 (+2.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -2.0 (+5.0) | 139.0 (+2.0) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#101) | 1.8 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#239) | -1.12 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#189) | -1.22 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#203) | 0.437 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.