Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -1200 NDSU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +21 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -23.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -22.7 (-1.7) | 154.2 (-23.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -14.4 (+6.6) | 149.3 (-18.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -18.8 (+2.2) | 151.6 (-20.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -21.0 (-0.0) | 151.8 (-20.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#64) | -9.6 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#50) | -3.89 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#50) | -5.05 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#101) | 0.407 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.97 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 10.3% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 81.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.4% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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