Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -300 LBSU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +21 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -0.4 (+20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -1.9 (+19.1) | 127.4 (-12.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -2.8 (+18.2) | 126.6 (-11.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -0.6 (+20.4) | 129.6 (-14.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -0.7 (+20.3) | 132.6 (-17.6) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 10-3 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#206) | -1.7 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#94) | -0.21 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#104) | -0.03 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#67) | 0.467 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.5% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.6% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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