Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | BCU +163 NWST -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +3 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | NWST -8.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -6.5 (+3.5) | 135.9 (-0.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -5.9 (+2.9) | 135.2 (-0.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -5.6 (+2.6) | 136.5 (-1.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -5.5 (+2.5) | 138.1 (-3.1) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#323) | -1.1 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#231) | 0.36 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#259) | -0.41 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#236) | 0.546 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 13.2% | 14.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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