I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · November 27, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread ACU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money NAU +110 / ACU -110
Model Predictions
Spread Total NAU win
Actual ACU +10 174 Lost
Massey NAU -13.9 (-23.9) — —
Massey Totals — 132.8 (+41.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 94% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 99% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ NAU -6.3 (-16.3) 134.9 (+39.1) 63% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML NAU -8.9 (-18.9) 138.3 (+35.7) 80% ✗
Baseline ML NAU -10.0 (-20.0) 136.9 (+37.1) 77% ✗
Baseline Plus ML NAU -9.6 (-19.6) 137.4 (+36.6) 73% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2023 NAU 78 – 76 ACU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NAU ACU
Overall 12-23 13-17
Conference 5-13 7-11
Home 6-8 10-5
Away 3-13 5-8
Neutral 3-2 0-4
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L6
Avg Pts For 72.5 71.2
Avg Pts Against 76.2 74.9
Massey -2.6 (#231) -9.8 (#331)
Bradley-Terry -0.85 (#245) -2.22 (#316)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.88 (#218) -3.61 (#324)
RPI 0.471 (#211) 0.329 (#348)
Shooting & Four Factors NAU ACU
FG% 38.3% 41.4%
3PT% 30.1% 35.8%
REB / G 33.8 28.4
OREB / G 10.7 7.8
AST / TO 0.96 0.83
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.8% 48.4%
TOV% 20.4% 24.3%
ORB% 27.6% 22.3%
FT Rate 17.0% 16.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.1% 54.4%
Opp TOV% 19.2% 25.9%
DRB% 70.6% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 32.1% 35.3%

Game Analysis

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