Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | NAU +110 ACU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +10 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -13.9 (-23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+41.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -6.3 (-16.3) | 134.9 (+39.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -8.9 (-18.9) | 138.3 (+35.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -10.0 (-20.0) | 136.9 (+37.1) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -9.6 (-19.6) | 137.4 (+36.6) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2023 | NAU 78 – 76 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#231) | -9.8 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#245) | -2.22 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#218) | -3.61 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#211) | 0.329 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 24.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 25.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 35.3% |
Game Analysis
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