Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Moody Coliseum (Abilene) · December 7, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ACU -8.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money ACU -400 / NAU +350
Model Predictions
Spread Total ACU win
Actual NAU +2 154 Lost
Massey ACU -8.7 (-10.7) — —
Massey Totals — 134.8 (+19.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 59% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 71% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ ACU -5.3 (-7.3) 137.4 (+16.6) 69% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML ACU -5.1 (-7.1) 134.9 (+19.1) 67% ✗
Baseline ML ACU -4.6 (-6.6) 135.9 (+18.1) 66% ✗
Baseline Plus ML ACU -4.9 (-6.9) 139.1 (+14.9) 68% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 27, 2022 ACU 92 – 82 NAU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ACU NAU
Overall 16-18 14-19
Conference 10-10 7-11
Home 8-6 7-5
Away 5-10 6-12
Neutral 3-2 1-2
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 70.7 68.6
Avg Pts Against 73.7 76.6
Massey -1.1 (#198) -4.1 (#250)
Bradley-Terry -0.37 (#223) 0.57 (#139)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.32 (#209) 0.37 (#169)
RPI 0.480 (#203) 0.547 (#106)
Shooting & Four Factors ACU NAU
FG% 40.9% 42.5%
3PT% 33.6% 29.5%
REB / G 31.0 30.6
OREB / G 9.0 7.5
AST / TO 0.92 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.7% 48.0%
TOV% 18.2% 19.4%
ORB% 24.3% 21.0%
FT Rate 29.3% 15.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.5% 50.3%
Opp TOV% 21.9% 20.4%
DRB% 67.2% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 31.7% 31.5%

Game Analysis

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