Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | COLG -2500 HART +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +34 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -20.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -15.3 (+18.7) | 145.1 (+4.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -15.5 (+18.5) | 142.1 (+7.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -15.0 (+19.0) | 144.8 (+5.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -15.5 (+18.5) | 145.0 (+5.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 5-23 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 0-0 |
| Home | 14-2 | 5-10 |
| Away | 11-4 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 59.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#150) | -19.0 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#201) | -3.48 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#171) | -5.50 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#262) | 0.276 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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