Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CARK -145 IDST +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -2.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -3.0 (+1.0) | 145.3 (+12.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -2.0 (+2.0) | 143.7 (+14.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -3.2 (+0.8) | 141.2 (+16.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -3.0 (+1.0) | 143.6 (+14.4) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#293) | -2.4 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#303) | -3.07 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.26 (#316) | -3.86 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#317) | 0.307 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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