Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | NICH +188 USD -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | USD -10.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.1 (-24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -8.8 (+10.8) | 156.8 (-14.8) | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -7.4 (+9.4) | 152.6 (-10.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -8.3 (+10.3) | 156.9 (-14.9) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USD -8.3 (+10.3) | 158.7 (-16.7) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#336) | 0.1 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#311) | 0.62 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#307) | 2.00 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#287) | 0.476 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 27.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.4% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 56.2% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.2% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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