Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -175 MTST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +1 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -4.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -2.8 (-1.8) | 130.4 (+12.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -3.4 (-2.4) | 128.0 (+15.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -2.4 (-1.4) | 130.2 (+12.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -2.7 (-1.7) | 132.1 (+10.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#110) | -0.6 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#97) | 0.47 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#89) | 0.84 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#123) | 0.492 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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