Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | MILW +163 BU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MILW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MILW +21 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | MILW -3.9 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-30.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MILW -0.2 (+20.8) | 142.9 (-29.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -0.7 (+21.7) | 140.1 (-27.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MILW -2.6 (+18.4) | 142.5 (-29.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MILW -2.4 (+18.6) | 141.8 (-28.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MILW | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#228) | 0.4 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#200) | 0.76 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#204) | 0.89 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#77) | 0.491 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MILW | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 28.9% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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