Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -450 OAK +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -17.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -12.3 (-0.3) | 144.7 (-4.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -13.1 (-1.1) | 145.4 (-5.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -12.3 (-0.3) | 146.2 (-6.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -14.0 (-2.0) | 145.4 (-5.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#134) | -15.1 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#211) | -3.25 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#157) | -4.69 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#312) | 0.329 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 60.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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