Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | RMU +320 USA -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +14 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -11.4 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.8 (+30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -7.8 (-6.2) | 129.7 (+24.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -10.3 (-3.7) | 133.9 (+20.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -8.2 (-5.8) | 130.3 (+23.7) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -8.1 (-5.9) | 129.8 (+24.2) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RMU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#286) | 5.0 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.09 (#347) | -0.28 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.87 (#328) | 0.20 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.299 (#355) | 0.540 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RMU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.8% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 23.2% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.9% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 19.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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