Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -175 TXST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -1.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -2.4 (+4.6) | 128.6 (+8.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -2.7 (+4.3) | 128.9 (+8.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -2.4 (+4.6) | 130.6 (+6.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -2.0 (+5.0) | 130.6 (+6.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-5 | 4-10 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#96) | 2.8 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#91) | 0.51 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#76) | 0.40 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#107) | 0.460 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 13.5% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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