Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -150 QUIN +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | QUIN +17 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | QUIN -4.4 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | QUIN -3.1 (-13.9) | 139.3 (-16.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | QUIN -2.8 (-14.2) | 135.8 (-12.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | QUIN -3.2 (-13.8) | 139.7 (-16.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | QUIN -2.7 (-14.3) | 139.0 (-16.0) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-5 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#193) | 3.8 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#148) | 2.65 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#137) | 3.74 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#187) | 0.521 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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