Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | EMU -175 UCSD +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +3 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | EMU -2.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -1.5 (-4.5) | 145.3 (-16.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -1.0 (-4.0) | 145.3 (-16.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -1.3 (-4.3) | 148.0 (-19.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -2.5 (-5.5) | 147.5 (-18.5) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2021 | UCSD 83 – 74 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-7 | 4-10 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#325) | -5.1 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#348) | -0.46 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.34 (#340) | -0.74 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.299 (#356) | 0.485 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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