Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -125 SFA +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +17 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -3.2 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -1.0 (-16.0) | 133.7 (-0.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -2.5 (-14.5) | 131.2 (+1.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -1.7 (-15.3) | 135.1 (-2.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -1.6 (-15.4) | 136.3 (-3.3) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#242) | -0.3 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#149) | 0.54 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#116) | 1.28 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#133) | 0.468 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 29.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 35.3% |
Game Analysis
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