Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | TCU +240 IOWA -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +13 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -16.7 (+29.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -9.9 (+22.9) | 154.2 (-9.2) | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -8.8 (+21.8) | 153.5 (-8.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -9.9 (+22.9) | 150.6 (-5.6) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -10.5 (+23.5) | 149.0 (-4.0) | 21% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#183) | 16.5 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#276) | 3.46 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#266) | 5.28 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#319) | 0.627 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 24.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 2.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 11.3% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 12.2% |
Game Analysis
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