Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UCF +100 MIA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +2 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -8.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -3.9 (-5.9) | 135.0 (-5.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -7.6 (-9.6) | 137.0 (-7.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -7.1 (-9.1) | 139.4 (-9.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -5.7 (-7.7) | 137.9 (-7.9) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | MIA 88 – 72 UCF |
| Nov 13, 2021 | UCF 95 – 89 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#90) | 2.5 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#137) | 1.46 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#140) | 2.50 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#108) | 0.554 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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