Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +6 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -13.7 (-19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+46.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -8.2 (-14.2) | 143.1 (+40.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -9.9 (-15.9) | 141.1 (+42.9) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | MIA 88 – 72 UCF |
| Nov 27, 2022 | MIA 66 – 64 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 10-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#180) | -1.2 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#75) | 0.34 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#101) | 0.45 (#104) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 10.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 36.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 81.6% | 58.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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