Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | MIA -480 UCF +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +16 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -26.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -16.3 (-0.3) | 151.7 (+8.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -17.7 (-1.7) | 148.7 (+11.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2022 | MIA 66 – 64 UCF |
| Nov 13, 2021 | UCF 95 – 89 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L10 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#24) | -2.3 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#85) | 0.07 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#63) | 0.05 (#152) |
| RPI | — | 0.250 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.2% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 48.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.56 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.5% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 11.8% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.4% | 40.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 31.1% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.4% | 51.1% |
Game Analysis
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