And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
Watsco Center · November 11, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MIA -10.0 Home covered
O/U 144.0 Over
Money MIA -480 / UCF +360
Model Predictions
Spread Total MIA win
Actual MIA +16 160 Won
Massey MIA -26.1 (-10.1) — —
Massey Totals — 150.4 (+9.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 94% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 97% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MIA -16.3 (-0.3) 151.7 (+8.3) 88% ✓
Baseline ML MIA -17.7 (-1.7) 148.7 (+11.3) 86% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 27, 2022 MIA 66 – 64 UCF
Nov 13, 2021 UCF 95 – 89 MIA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MIA UCF
Overall 15-17 17-16
Conference 6-14 7-11
Home 11-6 11-8
Away 2-9 3-7
Neutral 2-2 3-1
Last 5 1-0 1-0
Streak L10 L2
Avg Pts For 75.8 71.7
Avg Pts Against 73.6 67.9
Massey 8.6 (#24) -2.3 (#203)
Bradley-Terry 0.38 (#85) 0.07 (#148)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.62 (#63) 0.05 (#152)
RPI — 0.250 (#62)
Shooting & Four Factors MIA UCF
FG% 54.2% 50.0%
3PT% 42.9% 29.2%
REB / G 48.0 37.0
OREB / G 13.0 13.0
AST / TO 2.56 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 62.5% 55.6%
TOV% 11.8% 23.1%
ORB% 36.1% 38.2%
FT Rate 15.3% 25.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 40.4% 40.4%
Opp TOV% 21.0% 31.1%
DRB% 72.9% 72.7%
Opp FT Rate 7.4% 51.1%

Game Analysis

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