Really don't mind if you sit this one out. "Thick as a Brick" - Jethro Tull
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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52–18 on winners spread MAE 9.1 70 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iowa @ TCU -16.7 151.8 6% 66–79 ✗
San Diego @ Nicholls -9.3 168.1 20% 70–72 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Montana State -4.4 139.6 35% 70–53 ✓
UIC @ Green Bay -4.1 135.0 36% 78–64 ✓
Murray State @ Chattanooga +2.0 140.0 57% 66–69 ✓
Morehead State @ Marshall +22.1 136.1 98% 59–83 ✓
American University @ Saint Francis +1.0 142.3 54% 66–55 ✗
East Carolina @ Old Dominion +7.4 145.8 75% 50–71 ✓
North Dakota State @ New Mexico +24.2 156.4 99% 55–76 ✓
Fairfield @ Mercer +2.0 147.7 57% 58–60 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Kansas City +3.8 134.9 63% 64–54 ✗
Central Michigan @ California Baptist +5.0 137.0 68% 61–77 ✓
Long Beach State @ North Texas -0.1 127.3 50% 47–68 ✗
St. Thomas @ Utah +11.9 133.4 86% 66–95 ✓
Chicago State @ Marquette +26.7 159.6 99% 68–82 ✓
New Mexico State @ UC Irvine +3.9 130.1 64% 68–85 ✓
Southern Utah @ Sacramento State -1.1 145.5 46% 91–87 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Northern Colorado -6.4 142.7 28% 82–86 ✗
Texas State @ Hawai'i +3.4 129.5 62% 65–72 ✓
Iona @ Santa Clara -12.3 134.6 13% 76–86 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ UNC Greensboro -3.4 135.3 38% 75–58 ✓
Stanford @ Memphis +7.3 135.8 75% 48–56 ✓
Valparaiso @ James Madison +28.1 141.3 99% 81–79 ✗
Oakland @ Missouri State +16.6 149.2 93% 64–76 ✓
Rhode Island @ Boston College +11.3 124.3 85% 49–53 ✓
Stetson @ Campbell +7.2 136.0 74% 85–87 ✓
Stonehill @ UMass Lowell +21.1 160.4 97% 59–73 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ UC Davis +2.8 150.4 60% 71–73 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Georgia +10.5 131.6 83% 47–62 ✓
Montana State @ Middle Tennessee +4.2 126.6 65% 71–72 ✓
Harvard @ Fordham +7.7 130.6 76% 60–68 ✓
Ole Miss @ Oklahoma +3.4 128.7 62% 55–59 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Northern Kentucky +4.5 132.6 66% 77–85 ✓
Radford @ Elon -7.9 144.1 24% 69–53 ✓
Wagner @ NJIT +3.4 125.3 62% 62–57 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ North Dakota +0.5 145.2 52% 57–73 ✓
Belmont @ Georgia State +0.1 138.5 50% 68–66 ✗
Drexel @ Temple +3.5 132.0 62% 61–73 ✓
Alabama State @ Ohio +21.5 147.8 97% 58–72 ✓
Northwestern State @ Bethune-Cookman -7.1 136.7 26% 69–66 ✓
UC San Diego @ Eastern Michigan +3.5 155.5 63% 66–63 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Peter's +8.3 160.5 78% 63–77 ✓
Maine @ Brown -7.3 141.5 25% 63–70 ✗
Hartford @ Colgate +20.7 143.8 97% 58–92 ✓
South Alabama @ Robert Morris -11.4 124.3 15% 84–70 ✓
Canisius @ Buffalo +6.8 156.4 73% 66–86 ✓
San José State @ Ball State +5.1 135.9 68% 67–65 ✗
Saint Louis @ Auburn +12.2 147.8 87% 60–65 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Oklahoma State +4.3 145.8 65% 53–78 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Northern Arizona +14.0 132.5 90% 92–82 ✗
Lamar @ SMU +8.9 142.2 79% 50–75 ✓
Montana @ Air Force +6.5 126.3 72% 56–59 ✓
Villanova @ Oregon +1.7 139.9 56% 67–74 ✓
Wofford @ LSU +12.9 142.4 88% 75–78 ✓
Yale @ Colorado +2.1 139.5 58% 62–65 ✓
North Carolina @ Alabama +8.1 153.4 77% 101–103 ✓
Duke @ Purdue +2.4 124.6 58% 56–75 ✓
Boston University @ Milwaukee +3.4 146.9 62% 46–67 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Hofstra -0.1 149.1 50% 70–72 ✗
Delaware @ Pennsylvania +6.7 149.7 73% 73–86 ✓
Idaho State @ Central Arkansas +2.1 141.7 57% 77–81 ✓
Towson @ Mercer -5.8 142.5 30% 70–60 ✓
North Dakota State @ Jacksonville State +5.5 142.4 69% 71–81 ✓
Siena @ Seton Hall +11.3 138.7 85% 60–55 ✗
Alcorn State @ Arizona State +13.7 132.9 89% 54–76 ✓
Miami @ UCF +9.2 135.7 80% 66–64 ✗
Portland @ Michigan State +1.4 148.2 55% 77–78 ✓
Long Beach State @ Vermont -1.8 141.5 44% 78–58 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Florida International +5.9 147.4 70% 79–90 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Grambling +7.7 137.9 76% 63–61 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.