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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–2 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bellarmine
@
UCLA
|
+25.9 | 140.4 | 99% | 60–81 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Lehigh
|
+18.2 | 140.8 | 95% | 76–80 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
Gonzaga
|
+4.6 | 168.5 | 66% | 84–88 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Fairfield
|
+1.3 | 126.4 | 55% | 56–63 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
New Mexico
|
+22.9 | 153.6 | 98% | 74–98 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Nebraska
|
+8.4 | 134.5 | 78% | 58–75 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
UNC Wilmington
|
-4.0 | 114.9 | 36% | 51–55 | ✗ |
Dartmouth
@
UTSA
|
+6.1 | 142.9 | 71% | 78–77 | ✗ |
Florida
@
West Virginia
|
+10.4 | 153.6 | 83% | 55–84 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
UConn
|
+7.0 | 134.5 | 74% | 53–71 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Portland State
|
+7.2 | 144.7 | 74% | 71–83 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
Boston University
|
-7.3 | 150.8 | 25% | 81–70 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Dartmouth
|
-3.3 | 149.1 | 38% | 73–49 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.