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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–4 on winners
spread MAE 11.4
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Columbia
@
Marist
|
+12.0 | 138.6 | 86% | 39–52 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Tulane
|
+20.1 | 144.4 | 97% | 60–75 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
UT Martin
|
+17.8 | 139.9 | 95% | 83–86 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Virginia Tech
|
+19.5 | 129.4 | 96% | 57–67 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
Mississippi State
|
+29.0 | 120.4 | 100% | 54–74 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
UTSA
|
+5.0 | 132.1 | 67% | 62–68 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Kansas
|
+19.3 | 147.0 | 96% | 55–87 | ✓ |
Troy
@
Arkansas
|
+11.0 | 144.7 | 84% | 61–74 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Milwaukee
|
+5.4 | 133.2 | 69% | 68–84 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
San Diego
|
+3.2 | 148.6 | 61% | 68–71 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Northwestern
|
+18.7 | 117.7 | 96% | 87–58 | ✗ |
Seattle U
@
Washington
|
-5.6 | 142.6 | 30% | 66–77 | ✗ |
Cal Poly
@
Pacific
|
+15.2 | 157.7 | 92% | 62–58 | ✗ |
Sam Houston
@
Nevada
|
-7.4 | 126.6 | 25% | 60–78 | ✗ |
Long Island University
@
St. John's
|
+30.8 | 151.3 | 100% | 68–95 | ✓ |
Furman
@
App State
|
-0.5 | 150.0 | 48% | 65–61 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.