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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
26–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
34 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bellarmine
@
Kentucky
|
+22.8 | 145.4 | 98% | 41–60 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Louisville
|
-20.8 | 130.8 | 3% | 79–54 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
North Carolina Central
|
+4.8 | 153.8 | 67% | 66–79 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
East Carolina
|
+18.4 | 156.7 | 95% | 73–68 | ✗ |
UAlbany
@
American University
|
+15.4 | 137.0 | 92% | 62–88 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
Charleston
|
+8.1 | 155.8 | 77% | 60–75 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
South Florida
|
-1.5 | 129.8 | 44% | 73–67 | ✓ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Duquesne
|
+8.8 | 139.8 | 79% | 61–72 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Central Connecticut
|
+5.4 | 137.4 | 69% | 59–51 | ✗ |
Charlotte
@
Davidson
|
-0.6 | 127.8 | 48% | 68–66 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Miami (OH)
|
+3.2 | 152.7 | 62% | 78–95 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Bowling Green
|
+1.7 | 144.0 | 56% | 72–66 | ✗ |
VMI
@
Presbyterian
|
+6.0 | 137.5 | 71% | 57–72 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
NC State
|
+20.1 | 149.0 | 97% | 64–85 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Clemson
|
-1.1 | 135.2 | 46% | 94–101 | ✗ |
Syracuse
@
Illinois
|
+20.9 | 149.2 | 97% | 44–73 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Houston
|
+28.2 | 121.0 | 99% | 52–100 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Tarleton State
|
+19.8 | 142.6 | 96% | 65–75 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Kansas City
|
+6.0 | 124.1 | 71% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Montana
@
Southern Miss
|
+22.6 | 123.1 | 98% | 54–64 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Wichita State
|
+3.0 | 146.5 | 61% | 88–84 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Marquette
|
+3.4 | 166.5 | 62% | 70–96 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Boise State
|
+19.0 | 128.8 | 96% | 46–55 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Grand Canyon
|
+6.8 | 119.4 | 73% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Iowa
|
+16.5 | 144.5 | 93% | 65–81 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Wisconsin
|
+7.1 | 129.4 | 74% | 78–75 | ✗ |
Virginia
@
Michigan
|
-7.2 | 135.7 | 26% | 70–68 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
San Diego State
|
+2.6 | 136.4 | 59% | 69–72 | ✓ |
Navy
@
Lipscomb
|
+0.9 | 142.0 | 53% | 77–82 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Wyoming
|
-7.0 | 137.9 | 26% | 89–85 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Binghamton
|
+9.7 | 139.3 | 81% | 84–70 | ✗ |
Merrimack
@
UMass Lowell
|
+25.6 | 134.7 | 99% | 51–77 | ✓ |
Temple
@
La Salle
|
-4.1 | 138.0 | 36% | 67–51 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Butler
|
+3.4 | 137.4 | 62% | 64–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.