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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–25 on winners spread MAE 7.3 73 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Murray State @ Tennessee Tech	-12.4	144.3	15%	80–75	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Marshall	-0.6	147.4	42%	81–79	✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner	+15.9	142.4	88%	54–69	✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Sacred Heart	+2.4	143.7	49%	71–66	✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-5.7	136.0	22%	67–56	✓
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut	-7.0	142.9	25%	62–65	✗
Merrimack @ Bryant	+10.2	135.3	80%	67–76	✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville	+1.7	137.9	55%	61–55	✗
North Alabama @ Liberty	+15.7	136.3	88%	53–72	✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville	+5.7	132.9	75%	59–66	✓
UIC @ Detroit Mercy	+6.3	141.4	74%	67–80	✓
Milwaukee @ Robert Morris	-0.6	140.9	43%	53–77	✗
Green Bay @ Youngstown State	+6.8	132.6	70%	50–63	✓
Little Rock @ Coastal Carolina	+10.3	144.5	83%	49–65	✓
Drexel @ James Madison	+0.8	147.9	58%	88–82	✗
Hofstra @ Charleston	-1.9	149.5	45%	76–73	✓
Northeastern @ UNC Wilmington	+4.2	136.4	75%	62–67	✓
William & Mary @ Elon	+6.6	139.8	75%	54–61	✓
Delaware @ Towson	+6.1	136.0	72%	0–0	✗
Rice @ Louisiana Tech	+10.5	149.7	84%	63–80	✓
Bellarmine @ Stetson	-2.1	131.4	35%	72–47	✓
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State	-0.7	139.0	37%	70–64	✓
Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe	-0.1	135.2	43%	50–45	✓
Ohio State @ Minnesota	-1.5	136.1	37%	75–64	✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois	-0.7	145.2	39%	74–67	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Southern Illinois	-7.0	117.3	23%	44–39	✓
Florida International @ UTSA	-2.4	139.2	46%	66–73	✗
North Texas @ Southern Miss	-13.7	124.9	12%	63–54	✓
Weber State @ Northern Colorado	+0.2	157.8	39%	85–76	✗
LSU New Orleans @ Houston Christian	-3.1	143.3	29%	77–66	✓
Utah Valley @ Chicago State	-12.3	138.3	15%	101–87	✓
Central Arkansas @ North Florida	+5.1	149.1	75%	74–93	✓
Texas State @ UT Arlington	-2.6	132.9	38%	58–70	✗
Troy @ South Alabama	+4.7	135.8	71%	63–82	✓
Georgia State @ Louisiana	+6.4	143.9	73%	68–64	✗
Oral Roberts @ Omaha	-14.2	163.9	15%	100–88	✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota	+0.3	144.1	58%	74–62	✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota State	+17.9	157.8	90%	61–96	✓
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville	+4.6	140.7	70%	75–70	✗
Belmont @ Austin Peay	-11.9	144.2	16%	75–67	✓
Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State	+4.0	145.8	67%	70–79	✓
Nicholls @ McNeese	-3.8	150.9	32%	81–71	✓
Purdue @ Iowa	+1.2	154.3	54%	83–73	✗
California @ UCLA	+15.1	135.5	88%	57–81	✓
East Carolina @ Memphis	+12.4	150.2	86%	54–71	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Davis	+0.2	138.4	43%	74–58	✗
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State	-6.9	147.6	20%	74–73	✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin	+11.9	130.3	80%	58–53	✗
UAB @ Western Kentucky	-5.3	148.0	30%	68–65	✓
Florida Atlantic @ UTEP	+1.1	135.7	65%	68–70	✓
Idaho @ Montana	+10.9	146.0	85%	62–81	✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana State	+4.1	146.6	70%	65–69	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana	+0.5	148.4	45%	86–71	✗
Kansas City @ Denver	-0.3	138.1	46%	72–61	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine	+9.3	125.2	77%	52–57	✓
Cal Poly @ UC San Diego	+6.8	131.7	75%	59–55	✗
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside	+7.4	134.9	71%	68–62	✗
Southern Utah @ Portland State	-5.2	146.4	26%	85–82	✓
Idaho State @ Sacramento State	+7.3	133.2	84%	60–61	✓
Pacific @ Portland	+2.7	137.0	59%	56–64	✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco	+3.1	131.0	67%	72–70	✗
Pepperdine @ San Diego	+6.6	139.0	75%	56–64	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Gonzaga	+20.1	156.9	90%	55–89	✓
Stanford @ USC	+9.7	140.2	81%	64–61	✗
Colorado @ Washington	-3.2	138.7	42%	58–60	✗
BYU @ Santa Clara	-2.8	152.6	42%	76–77	✗
Cal State Northridge @ Hawai'i	+11.7	130.1	86%	65–72	✓
Colgate @ Boston University	+0.0	137.6	50%	72–76	✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross	-3.9	138.6	35%	65–67	✗
Pennsylvania @ Harvard	+3.0	145.5	66%	78–74	✗
Stony Brook @ New Hampshire	+1.3	137.8	54%	76–69	✗
Canisius @ Monmouth	+9.5	139.9	82%	67–72	✓
Wyoming @ Air Force	-10.1	127.4	18%	63–61	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.