Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +19 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | USA -7.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -4.7 (+14.3) | 135.8 (+9.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -5.1 (+13.9) | 136.6 (+8.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -5.1 (+13.9) | 135.8 (+9.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -5.3 (+13.7) | 136.8 (+8.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USA 65 – 54 TROY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TROY 59 – 49 USA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TROY 65 – 55 USA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USA 64 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TROY 83 – 79 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#120) | -0.5 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#104) | 0.61 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#107) | 0.89 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#86) | 0.509 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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