Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +8 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | USD -10.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -6.6 (+1.4) | 139.0 (-19.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -8.6 (-0.6) | 140.7 (-20.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -8.7 (-0.7) | 140.1 (-20.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -8.8 (-0.8) | 139.3 (-19.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | USD 92 – 88 PEPP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USD 83 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 14, 2025 | PEPP 88 – 81 USD |
| Jan 31, 2025 | PEPP 98 – 90 USD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | USD 57 – 52 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 1-15 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-8 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#174) | -7.4 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#166) | -1.39 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#147) | -1.65 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#157) | 0.434 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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