Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -2.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -3.1 (-5.1) | 131.0 (+11.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -3.2 (-5.2) | 132.3 (+9.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -3.4 (-5.4) | 133.5 (+8.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -2.8 (-4.8) | 133.2 (+8.8) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SMC 79 – 54 SF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SMC 82 – 68 SF |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SF 65 – 64 SMC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SMC 71 – 51 SF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | SMC 70 – 66 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 12-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-0 |
| Away | 7-2 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 61.3 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#40) | 11.6 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#38) | 2.46 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#36) | 2.92 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#29) | 0.629 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 79.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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