Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -0.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -0.7 (-6.3) | 145.2 (-4.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -1.2 (-8.2) | 144.6 (-3.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -0.6 (-7.6) | 146.2 (-5.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -0.4 (-7.4) | 145.8 (-4.8) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BALL 79 – 43 NIU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BALL 58 – 53 NIU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BALL 89 – 83 NIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NIU 76 – 66 BALL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BALL 70 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-10 |
| Home | 3-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#305) | -5.7 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#248) | -0.71 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#248) | -0.88 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#223) | 0.450 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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