Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +11 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -3.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -0.3 (-10.7) | 138.1 (-5.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -1.3 (-12.3) | 139.7 (-6.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -1.5 (-12.5) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -1.2 (-12.2) | 140.5 (-7.5) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | DEN 69 – 61 KC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | DEN 87 – 74 KC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | KC 64 – 56 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DEN 69 – 68 KC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DEN 61 – 60 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#278) | -6.1 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#290) | -0.45 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#288) | -0.49 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#305) | 0.471 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 28.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 38.1% |
Game Analysis
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