Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -15.0 Push |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +15 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -19.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -15.9 (-0.9) | 142.4 (-19.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -15.9 (-0.9) | 147.9 (-24.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -17.2 (-2.2) | 147.0 (-24.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -17.0 (-2.0) | 147.8 (-24.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | WAG 65 – 56 SFPA |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SFPA 71 – 69 WAG |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SFPA 58 – 55 WAG |
| Jan 26, 2025 | WAG 68 – 66 SFPA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | WAG 70 – 68 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-6 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-1 | 4-8 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#85) | -9.5 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#45) | -2.06 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#50) | -2.46 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#93) | 0.401 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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