Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Ohio Valley Conference · Show Me Center · January 28, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -6.0 Home covered
O/U 147.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total SEMO win
Actual MORE +1 147 Lost
Massey MORE -6.0 (+5.0) — —
Massey Totals — 153.5 (-6.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 8% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 5% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MORE -6.9 (+5.9) 147.6 (-0.6) 20% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -5.0 (+4.0) 149.5 (-2.5) 25% ✓
Baseline ML MORE -5.4 (+4.4) 153.0 (-6.0) 25% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MORE -5.9 (+4.9) 148.7 (-1.7) 22% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2026 MORE 66 – 61 SEMO
Feb 6, 2026 SEMO 82 – 70 MORE
Jan 10, 2026 MORE 71 – 69 SEMO
Feb 7, 2025 SEMO 80 – 51 MORE
Jan 11, 2025 MORE 67 – 56 SEMO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SEMO MORE
Overall 14-18 23-11
Conference 8-9 13-5
Home 8-5 12-2
Away 5-10 8-8
Neutral 1-3 3-1
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.7 68.6
Avg Pts Against 78.2 64.4
Massey -7.7 (#301) 1.7 (#136)
Bradley-Terry -1.56 (#298) 1.40 (#74)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.06 (#304) 1.63 (#81)
RPI 0.435 (#286) 0.554 (#85)
Shooting & Four Factors SEMO MORE
FG% 44.5% 46.3%
3PT% 36.2% 38.3%
REB / G 31.6 34.9
OREB / G 8.1 9.8
AST / TO 1.01 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.4% 53.9%
TOV% 18.1% 21.8%
ORB% 23.4% 31.4%
FT Rate 25.9% 23.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.5% 48.6%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 17.8%
DRB% 72.1% 70.7%
Opp FT Rate 32.2% 14.2%

Game Analysis

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