Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +16 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -1.2 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -0.2 (-16.2) | 138.4 (-6.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -0.6 (-16.6) | 141.9 (-9.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.5 (-16.5) | 142.3 (-10.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -0.2 (-16.2) | 141.6 (-9.6) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 70 UCD |
| Feb 20, 2026 | CSUF 93 – 92 UCD |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCD 74 – 69 CSUF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCD 65 – 49 CSUF |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCD 63 – 53 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-6 | 11-4 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#193) | 1.1 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#213) | 0.47 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#224) | 0.45 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#249) | 0.511 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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