Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -8.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -6.4 (-10.4) | 143.9 (-11.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -6.7 (-10.7) | 143.7 (-11.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UL -5.9 (-9.9) | 144.1 (-12.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -5.8 (-9.8) | 145.3 (-13.3) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UL 84 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UL 82 – 72 GAST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GAST 94 – 70 UL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | GAST 78 – 69 UL |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UL 78 – 70 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 9-5 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#162) | -5.0 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#162) | -1.24 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#164) | -1.12 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#152) | 0.431 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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