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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
40–11 on winners
spread MAE 7.3
51 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+2.2 | 134.7 | 59% | 67–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.9 | 127.7 | 87% | 61–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 130.3 | 60% | 69–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.8 | 132.8 | 34% | 81–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.8 | 132.3 | 30% | 74–54 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 142.5 | 38% | 71–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.5 | 131.8 | 54% | 49–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.3 | 133.9 | 20% | 81–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 140.6 | 84% | 71–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 132.3 | 57% | 58–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.5 | 133.7 | 22% | 62–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.9 | 127.7 | 84% | 60–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 133.6 | 66% | 78–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.9 | 143.2 | 87% | 47–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.0 | 144.0 | 26% | 80–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 140.5 | 82% | 69–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 138.9 | 57% | 60–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 128.7 | 55% | 64–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.8 | 136.2 | 44% | 71–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.8 | 133.2 | 18% | 64–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.0 | 148.3 | 52% | 77–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.2 | 134.4 | 62% | 66–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 140.2 | 69% | 61–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 134.0 | 76% | 60–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 152.6 | 83% | 64–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 130.4 | 58% | 80–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.4 | 157.3 | 67% | 66–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 132.3 | 62% | 61–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 141.7 | 30% | 64–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 129.2 | 62% | 84–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.8 | 138.7 | 70% | 79–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.9 | 131.6 | 20% | 62–57 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.7 | 152.8 | 22% | 87–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 131.6 | 66% | 72–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.2 | 147.5 | 30% | 89–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.7 | 143.7 | 89% | 67–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 146.4 | 51% | 61–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 152.5 | 69% | 73–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 133.2 | 62% | 70–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.1 | 131.7 | 76% | 57–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 131.1 | 83% | 64–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 141.4 | 65% | 63–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 142.5 | 76% | 65–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.0 | 139.4 | 32% | 61–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.9 | 136.6 | 82% | 54–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 136.3 | 37% | 73–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 144.2 | 66% | 62–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 132.5 | 57% | 57–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.3 | 148.3 | 15% | 73–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 153.9 | 61% | 73–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 135.1 | 66% | 54–61 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.