Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +18 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | USU -0.9 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -2.0 (+16.0) | 132.5 (-0.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -0.3 (+17.7) | 130.5 (+1.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -0.5 (+17.5) | 130.5 (+1.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -1.7 (+16.3) | 131.7 (+0.3) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-4 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 58.1 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#67) | 10.7 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#96) | 2.18 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#75) | 2.76 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#75) | 0.620 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 41.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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